War Bets Tracker
Prediction Market Accountability
Who's Profiting From the War?
$529 million was traded on Polymarket contracts tied to the timing of the Iran strikes. Six newly created accounts made $1 million by correctly predicting the US would strike by February 28, 2026. One account called "Magamyman" made over $553,000 betting on the death of Iran's supreme leader, with trades placed just before the strikes.
Sources: TechCrunch, NPR, Reuters | Data from Polymarket API
Key Figures
Aggregate data from Polymarket war-related contracts
Total Volume Traded
$1334.6M
$20.8M in last 24h
Flagged Accounts
9
Showing suspicious pre-strike activity
Suspicious Profits
$2.1M+
Concentrated in 6 new accounts
Active Markets
59
Across 28 tracked events
Price History: Iran Strike Market
How the odds moved from ~29% to 99.9% — real price data from Polymarket CLOB API
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? — 523 data points from Polymarket CLOB API
War-Related Markets
117 markets across 28 events from Polymarket
| Market | Category | Volume | 24h Vol | Price | Status | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US strikes Iran by...? (65 sub-markets) US strikes Iran by...? | iran | $529.0M | - | - | resolved | critical |
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | iran | $131.1M | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | critical |
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? US strikes Iran by...? | iran | $89.7M | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | critical |
US x Venezuela military engagement by...? (27 sub-markets) US x Venezuela military engagement by...? | escalation | $87.4M | - | - | resolved | high |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | diplomatic | $73.8M | - | No | resolved (No) | critical |
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | iran | $63.2M | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | critical |
US next strikes Iran on...? (30 sub-markets) US next strikes Iran on...? | iran | $56.6M | - | - | resolved | high |
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | russia-ukraine | $56.5M | - | No | resolved (No) | critical |
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? | diplomatic | $51.8M | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | critical |
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? US x Venezuela military engagement by...? | escalation | $51.1M | - | No | resolved (No) | critical |
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | iran | $49.7M | - | No | resolved (No) | medium |
Venezuela leader end of 2026? (57 sub-markets) Venezuela leader end of 2026? | escalation | $42.7M | $180K | - | active | medium |
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? US strikes Iran by...? | iran | $41.8M | - | No | resolved (No) | critical |
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? US strikes Iran by...? | iran | $25.1M | - | No | resolved (No) | critical |
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Venezuela leader end of 2026? | escalation | $24.2M | $70K | 0c | active | medium |
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | escalation | $22.8M | $2.5M | 11c | active | medium |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | diplomatic | $22.6M | $172K | 3c | active | medium |
Next Supreme Leader of Iran? (122 sub-markets) Next Supreme Leader of Iran? | iran | $22.3M | $3.7M | - | active | medium |
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? US strikes Iran by...? | iran | $22.2M | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | critical |
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? US strikes Iran by...? | iran | $18.8M | - | No | resolved (No) | critical |
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...? | escalation | $15.5M | $3.7M | 77c | active | medium |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | diplomatic | $11.1M | $72K | 38c | active | medium |
US/Israel strikes Iran on...? (14 sub-markets) US/Israel strikes Iran on...? | iran | $10.6M | $969K | - | active | medium |
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? US x Venezuela military engagement by...? | escalation | $9.2M | - | No | resolved (No) | high |
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | escalation | $8.9M | $969K | 39c | active | low |
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? | escalation | $8.4M | - | No | resolved (No) | medium |
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | escalation | $8.0M | $82K | 50c | active | low |
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Venezuela leader end of 2026? | escalation | $7.9M | $29K | 0c | active | medium |
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? US x Venezuela military engagement by...? | escalation | $6.8M | - | No | resolved (No) | high |
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? US x Iran ceasefire by...? | diplomatic | $6.5M | $1.6M | 0c | active | medium |
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? US next strikes Iran on...? | iran | $5.8M | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | high |
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Next Supreme Leader of Iran? | iran | $5.8M | $979K | 53c | active | medium |
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? US next strikes Iran on...? | iran | $4.6M | - | No | resolved (No) | high |
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? US x Venezuela military engagement by...? | escalation | $3.8M | - | No | resolved (No) | high |
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)? US next strikes Iran on...? | iran | $3.5M | - | No | resolved (No) | high |
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? US x Iran ceasefire by...? | diplomatic | $3.5M | - | No | resolved (No) | medium |
Which countries will strike Iran by March 31? (13 sub-markets) Which countries will strike Iran by March 31? | iran | $3.4M | $287K | - | active | low |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? | diplomatic | $3.4M | $336K | 3c | active | low |
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? US x Venezuela military engagement by...? | escalation | $3.3M | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | high |
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? US next strikes Iran on...? | iran | $3.0M | - | No | resolved (No) | high |
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? US next strikes Iran on...? | iran | $3.0M | - | No | resolved (No) | high |
US forces enter Iran by March 7? US forces enter Iran by..? | escalation | $2.9M | $1.3M | 3c | active | low |
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? | escalation | $2.8M | - | No | resolved (No) | medium |
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? US x Iran ceasefire by...? | diplomatic | $2.6M | $446K | 11c | active | medium |
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? | escalation | $2.6M | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? | escalation | $2.6M | $9K | 1c | active | medium |
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? | diplomatic | $2.5M | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? US x Iran ceasefire by...? | diplomatic | $2.3M | $501K | 30c | active | medium |
US forces enter Iran by March 31? US forces enter Iran by..? | escalation | $2.3M | $352K | 34c | active | low |
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? US/Israel strikes Iran on...? | iran | $2.1M | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | medium |
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? US/Israel strikes Iran on...? | iran | $2.1M | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | medium |
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Venezuela leader end of 2026? | escalation | $2.0M | $19K | 0c | active | medium |
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Next Supreme Leader of Iran? | iran | $1.9M | $152K | 12c | active | medium |
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Iran strikes Israel on...? | iran | $1.7M | $589K | 100c | active | low |
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? US/Israel strikes Iran on...? | iran | $1.5M | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | medium |
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? | escalation | $1.4M | $57K | 44c | active | low |
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? US/Israel strikes Iran on...? | iran | $1.4M | $62K | 100c | resolved (Yes) | medium |
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Venezuela leader end of 2026? | escalation | $1.3M | $16K | 0c | active | medium |
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...? | escalation | $1.3M | $308K | 83c | active | medium |
US strike on Mexico by January 31? US strike on Mexico by...? | other | $1.3M | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Next Supreme Leader of Iran? | iran | $1.2M | $219K | 6c | active | medium |
US strike on Mexico by March 31? US strike on Mexico by...? | other | $1.2M | $9K | 4c | active | low |
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? US/Israel strikes Iran on...? | iran | $1.2M | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | medium |
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...? | escalation | $1.2M | $168K | 83c | active | medium |
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Venezuela leader end of 2026? | escalation | $1.1M | $3K | 1c | active | medium |
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? New Supreme Leader of Iran by...? | iran | $1.0M | $177K | 6c | active | low |
US forces enter Iran by March 14? US forces enter Iran by..? | escalation | $1.0M | $361K | 17c | active | low |
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? New Supreme Leader of Iran by...? | iran | $964K | $566K | No | resolved (No) | low |
US forces enter Iran by March 3? US forces enter Iran by..? | escalation | $921K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? | diplomatic | $860K | $42K | 22c | active | low |
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Next Supreme Leader of Iran? | iran | $849K | $80K | 2c | active | medium |
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Next Supreme Leader of Iran? | iran | $833K | $157K | 11c | active | medium |
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? New Supreme Leader of Iran by...? | iran | $774K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? New Supreme Leader of Iran by...? | iran | $764K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? US x Iran ceasefire by...? | diplomatic | $722K | $136K | 48c | active | medium |
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? | diplomatic | $708K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Which countries will strike Iran by March 31? | iran | $685K | $48K | 26c | active | low |
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? New Supreme Leader of Iran by...? | iran | $620K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Iran strikes Israel on...? | iran | $601K | $149K | 3c | active | low |
US forces enter Iran by January 31? US forces enter Iran by..? | escalation | $572K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Which countries will strike Iran by March 31? | iran | $554K | $26K | 27c | active | low |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31? Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? | diplomatic | $547K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5? Iran strikes Israel on...? | iran | $531K | $391K | 100c | resolved (Yes) | low |
US forces enter Iran by December 31? US forces enter Iran by..? | escalation | $516K | $122K | 57c | active | low |
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? New Supreme Leader of Iran by...? | iran | $493K | $62K | 54c | active | low |
US strike on Mexico by December 31? US strike on Mexico by...? | other | $452K | $567 | 28c | active | low |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? | diplomatic | $451K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? New Supreme Leader of Iran by...? | iran | $444K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Which countries will strike Iran by March 31? | iran | $437K | $29K | 3c | active | low |
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? New Supreme Leader of Iran by...? | iran | $433K | $65K | 74c | active | low |
US forces enter Iran by February 28? US forces enter Iran by..? | escalation | $421K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Which countries will strike Iran by March 31? | iran | $421K | $28K | 23c | active | low |
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Which countries will strike Iran by March 31? | iran | $403K | $69K | 20c | active | low |
Will Iran strike Israel on March 2? Iran strikes Israel on...? | iran | $399K | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | low |
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30? Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? | diplomatic | $348K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31? Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...? | escalation | $294K | - | No | resolved (No) | medium |
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? New Supreme Leader of Iran by...? | iran | $270K | $83K | 11c | active | low |
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9? María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? | escalation | $264K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? US x Iran ceasefire by...? | diplomatic | $243K | $74K | 63c | active | medium |
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7? Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? | diplomatic | $202K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? US x Iran ceasefire by...? | diplomatic | $187K | $56K | 70c | active | medium |
Will Iran strike Israel on March 1? Iran strikes Israel on...? | iran | $174K | - | 100c | resolved (Yes) | low |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? | diplomatic | $164K | $6K | 34c | active | low |
US forces enter Iran by March 1? US forces enter Iran by..? | escalation | $160K | - | No | resolved (No) | low |
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? | escalation | $150K | $42 | 13c | active | medium |
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? | escalation | $135K | $26K | 3c | active | low |
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026? Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? | diplomatic | $124K | $234 | 14c | active | low |
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Iran strikes Israel on...? | iran | $116K | $81K | 69c | active | low |
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? | diplomatic | $47K | $26 | 38c | active | low |
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Iran strikes Israel on...? | iran | $26K | $13K | 51c | active | low |
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Iran strikes Israel on...? | iran | $16K | $7K | 43c | active | low |
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9? Iran strikes Israel on...? | iran | $14K | $5K | 40c | active | low |
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8? Iran strikes Israel on...? | iran | $14K | $7K | 47c | active | low |
arch Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...? | escalation | $0 | - | - | suspended | medium |
arch Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...? | escalation | $0 | - | - | suspended | medium |
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 24? María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? | escalation | $0 | - | - | suspended | low |
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by January 31? Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? | diplomatic | $0 | - | - | suspended | low |
Recent Trades: Feb 28 Strike Market
Individual trades from Polymarket Data API (most recent 3,000 available)
YES Buy Volume
$263K
YES Sell Volume
$170K
Unique Traders
277
Sorted by trade size (largest first)
| Time | Side | Outcome | Tokens | Price | Cost | Trader | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28 09:58 AM | BUY | Yes | 222,256 | 99.9c | $222K | Benzoate... | 0x8f417a... |
| Feb 28 10:10 AM | SELL | Yes | 39,336 | 99.9c | $39K | MajidJavadi | 0x9bb246... |
| Feb 28 09:56 AM | SELL | Yes | 22,921 | 99.8c | $23K | Stamap | 0x8afd53... |
| Feb 28 09:56 AM | BUY | Yes | 19,000 | 99.9c | $19K | Hans323 | 0x5810d4... |
| Feb 28 10:24 AM | SELL | Yes | 13,866 | 99.9c | $14K | digitest | 0x371a92... |
| Feb 28 09:53 AM | BUY | Yes | 10,000 | 99.9c | $10K | weaklei | 0xa5e286... |
| Feb 28 10:01 AM | SELL | Yes | 8,212 | 99.9c | $8K | RealPancrace | 0xd15199... |
| Feb 28 10:04 AM | SELL | Yes | 6,787 | 99.9c | $7K | 0xA7E96E... | 0x54f857... |
| Feb 28 09:55 AM | SELL | Yes | 6,667 | 99.8c | $7K | axiscapital28 | 0xfe87de... |
| Feb 28 10:01 AM | SELL | Yes | 6,000 | 99.9c | $6K | Huludubu | 0xe5e515... |
| Feb 28 10:11 AM | SELL | Yes | 6,000 | 99.9c | $6K | katarina-ever | 0xf2f986... |
| Feb 28 09:52 AM | BUY | Yes | 5,091 | 99.9c | $5K | irbisSS | 0x99c54b... |
| Feb 28 09:53 AM | BUY | Yes | 4,987 | 99.9c | $5K | katarina-ever | 0x182b2f... |
| Feb 28 10:32 AM | SELL | Yes | 4,060 | 99.9c | $4K | 0x3fB5fE... | 0x62b202... |
| Feb 28 10:21 AM | SELL | Yes | 3,952 | 99.9c | $4K | Swerdlowzac | 0xe00eb4... |
| Feb 28 10:28 AM | SELL | Yes | 3,867 | 99.9c | $4K | ACAB1213AcAb | 0x0b86e1... |
| Feb 28 10:20 AM | SELL | Yes | 3,689 | 99.9c | $4K | bigtoetiger | 0x748bd4... |
| Feb 28 10:19 AM | SELL | Yes | 3,333 | 99.9c | $3K | Lordnever | 0x0d042f... |
| Feb 28 09:57 AM | SELL | Yes | 3,138 | 99.8c | $3K | BarkCuban | 0x67e2df... |
| Feb 28 10:23 AM | SELL | Yes | 3,003 | 99.9c | $3K | Trustinghorse | 0x1d017e... |
| Feb 28 10:13 AM | SELL | Yes | 2,221 | 99.9c | $2K | MatanE | 0x3b1b67... |
| Feb 28 10:28 AM | SELL | Yes | 2,000 | 99.9c | $2K | 0x5b4925... | 0xdf0c26... |
| Feb 28 10:01 AM | SELL | Yes | 1,439 | 99.9c | $1K | Anon98192 | 0xd16721... |
| Feb 28 10:05 AM | SELL | Yes | 1,244 | 99.9c | $1K | Anonymous | 0x0698eb... |
| Feb 28 10:11 AM | SELL | Yes | 1,240 | 99.9c | $1K | The-Joker | 0x4dddf3... |
Note: Polymarket Data API limits trade history to the most recent 3,000 trades per market. Earlier trades (including pre-strike activity) require on-chain analysis.
Top Position Holders
Largest positions on the key Iran strike market
Top position holders for: US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? (live from Polymarket Data API)
| # | Name | Wallet | Position Size | Side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | decoderdude970 | 0x45f4...dd79 | $51K | YES |
| 2 | pom22 | 0x6130...c5c1 | $49K | YES |
| 3 | gagadolls | 0xdcce...0a15 | $47K | YES |
| 4 | irk77 | 0x26ec...8f54 | $47K | YES |
| 5 | stayfrosty961 | 0xdad4...ec0b | $46K | YES |
| 6 | toobigtofail679 | 0xeee5...cce1 | $46K | YES |
| 7 | seoulpatch97 | 0xeb1c...0f79 | $46K | YES |
| 8 | tangerine66 | 0x82ed...7cc3 | $45K | YES |
| 9 | GoingSteady | 0x6538...e523 | $43K | YES |
| 10 | curtainrod | 0x421b...8469 | $43K | YES |
| 11 | sheepofwallst | 0xfffe...b424 | $42K | YES |
| 12 | TouchOfGrass | 0xab54...e856 | $41K | YES |
| 13 | cokelight | 0xf1d5...7ffc | $41K | YES |
| 14 | scottiedoesntknow | 0xb720...c414 | $36K | YES |
| 15 | skittums | 0x6273...1741 | $36K | YES |
| 16 | gulligan784 | 0xa34d...ee4d | $35K | YES |
| 17 | hankthepank | 0x2b60...0b9e | $35K | YES |
| 18 | fgarygray | 0xe1bd...f5a7 | $35K | YES |
| 19 | scallopbucket | 0xe85f...a28c | $33K | YES |
| 20 | fuxfux007 | 0x00ec...8240 | $32K | YES |
Flagged Suspicious Accounts
Accounts exhibiting patterns consistent with possible insider knowledge (from news reports)
Magamyman
Wallet: 0x7a3f...d91e
Created: Feb 15, 2026
Win Rate: 100% (4 bets)
Click to expand
PredictorAlpha
Wallet: 0x2b8c...f4a2
Created: Feb 18, 2026
Win Rate: 100% (1 bets)
Click to expand
FreedomTrader99
Wallet: 0x9d1e...b3c7
Created: Feb 20, 2026
Win Rate: 100% (1 bets)
Click to expand
DeltaHedge
Wallet: 0x4f6a...e8d5
Created: Feb 12, 2026
Win Rate: 100% (3 bets)
Click to expand
Anonymous_0xf8
Wallet: 0xf8b2...a1c9
Created: Feb 22, 2026
Win Rate: 100% (1 bets)
Click to expand
PatriotBets
Wallet: 0x1c3d...7f6b
Created: Feb 19, 2026
Win Rate: 100% (2 bets)
Click to expand
CryptoEagle
Wallet: 0x5e9f...c2d4
Created: Jan 28, 2026
Win Rate: 83% (12 bets)
Click to expand
SilentMajority
Wallet: 0xa7b1...d9e3
Created: Feb 10, 2026
Win Rate: 100% (2 bets)
Click to expand
WhaleBets
Wallet: 0x3c8e...b5a7
Created: Feb 5, 2026
Win Rate: 80% (5 bets)
Click to expand
Event Timeline
Chronological sequence of military, market, and regulatory events
Mar 5, 2026
Bipartisan group introduces Prediction Market Integrity Act
Mar 4, 2026
CFTC announces review of Polymarket war contracts
Mar 3, 2026
Sen. Warren calls for SEC investigation into prediction markets
Mar 2, 2026
NPR reports on "Magamyman" account making $553K
Mar 1, 2026
TechCrunch investigation reveals suspicious betting patterns
Feb 28, 2026
"Strike by Feb 28" market resolves Yes; $1M+ paid to 6 new accounts
Feb 27, 2026
US launches strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets
Feb 25, 2026
Trading volume spikes 400% in 48 hours before strikes
Feb 15, 2026
"Magamyman" account created, begins placing six-figure bets
Feb 12, 2026
Cluster of new accounts begin placing large bets on Yes
Feb 5, 2026
Classified intelligence briefings hint at imminent action
Jan 15, 2026
First Iran strike prediction markets appear on Polymarket
Congressional & Regulatory Response
Legislative and regulatory actions in response to suspicious prediction market activity
Letter to SEC Chair demanding investigation
Sen. Elizabeth Warren and 12 co-signers sent a letter to SEC Chair demanding a full investigation into suspicious trading activity on Polymarket prediction markets tied to the Iran strikes, citing potential insider trading and national security concerns.
CFTC Announces Formal Review of War-Related Prediction Markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced it will conduct a formal review of all prediction market contracts tied to military operations, with specific focus on the timing of trades and account creation patterns on Polymarket.
Prediction Market Integrity Act of 2026
Bipartisan bill introduced to require prediction market platforms to implement KYC verification, report suspicious trading patterns to FinCEN, and prohibit contracts that could incentivize or reward violence or military action.
Senate Intelligence Committee Hearing Scheduled
The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence has scheduled a closed hearing to examine whether classified information was used to profit on prediction markets. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has been called to testify.
House Financial Services Committee Statement
Committee Chair issued a statement calling the prediction market trading "deeply troubling" and announced plans for public hearings on the regulation of prediction markets involving national security events.
From Congress.gov API
Bills discovered automatically from the official Congress.gov API
4 bill(s) found via Congress.gov API matching prediction market and war-related keywords in the 119th Congress.
To amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit event contracts based on terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, illegal activity, election outcomes, government activities, or other activities determined by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to be contrary to the public interest, and to allow States to exempt themselves from the prohibition on gaming contracts.
Latest action (2026-03-05): Referred to the House Committee on Agriculture.
Directing the President pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution to remove United States Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Latest action (2026-03-05): Motion to reconsider laid on the table Agreed to without objection.
Directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution, to remove the United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Latest action (2026-03-04): Referred to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution, to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran.
Latest action (2025-06-23): Referred to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Methodology & Sources
Polymarket Data
Market data from Gamma API (events/prices), CLOB API (price history), and Data API (holders/trades). Fetched at build time.
Congress.gov
Bills from the 119th Congress searched via official API for prediction market, event contract, and war powers keywords. Curated actions from news reports.
Limitations
Trade history is limited to 3,000 most recent trades per market. Pre-strike trades require on-chain analysis. This dashboard does not constitute evidence of wrongdoing.